Green Thoughts

Doc on the Clock

2006-09-28T13:49:00.000-07:00

There's been a lot of back and forth about the future of Celtics coach Doc Rivers. Some prognosticators put Rivers at the top of their list of coaches on the "hot seat," citing the disappointing 2005-2006 season and Doc's lack of game management skills. Others say Rivers deserves credit for holding together a team of head cases like Mark Blount and Ricky Davis, for getting Paul Pierce to take his game to a new level, and for giving young players like Kendrick Perkins and Ryan Gomes a chance to develop.

Count me among those who say Doc's on the clock, but not because his game managment skills are lacking. The schedule and Rivers' own history are working against him, as is the pressure on the team's front office.

At first glance, the calendar seems to smile on Doc. The Celtics play nine of their first fourteen games at home, and eight of their first fourteen against lottery teams. A record of 8-6 should be a cakewalk, and 10-4 isn't out of the question. That's a good thing, because December is loaded with playoff teams and road games, including the always challenging West Coast swing.

But Doc's history as a coach, both in Orlando and in Boston, is working against him. In the month of November, Rivers career W-L is a hideous 37-65 (.363). Moreover, Rivers' teams pretty much hover around .500 or below for the entire first half of the season. Here are the W-L splits pre and post January 31 for every year of Rivers' coaching career:

(ORL) 1999-2000: 20-26/21-15
(ORL) 2000-2001: 21-23/22-16
(ORL) 2001-2002: 23-23/21-15
(ORL) 2002-2003: 24-24/18-16
(ORL) 2003-2004: 1-10/NA
(BOS) 2004-2005: 21-24/24-13
(BOS) 2005-2006: 18-27/15-22

If Rivers stays true to form this year he puts the front office in a difficult position. Do they hang in there and hope for a second half surge or pull the trigger and replace Doc?

The team's said recently that it's seen a surge in ticket sales. With the Red Sox coming off a disappointing season, the Patriots playing once a week through January at most, and the Bruins... well... being the Bruins, the Celtics have an opportunity to expand their fan base and become relevant again. It's a tribute to the team's marketing ability that, by stressing the development of young players, they have been able to spin the worst season in seven years into great anticipation for this year.

The guess here, though, is that it wouldn't take much to make fans look away again. The team can't afford that and, for all their "stand by your man" rhetoric, Wyc, Steve and the boys know that Rivers has never won more than 47 games, and never won a playoff series, much less a championship. In other words, there's nothing in Doc's coaching history that would argue against cutting the team's losses and cutting him loose. If the team can't ace November's cupcake schedule, look for Rivers to be gone by Christmas, with either Ainge or Tony Brown stepping in as head coach.

Less "Upside." More Results.

2006-06-29T12:10:00.000-07:00

I’m afraid I can’t join in the high fives going around the major media and the blogosphere over the Celtics draft yesterday. Here’s how I see it.

Sebastian Telfair is probably an upgrade over Dan Dickau, but is that really saying anything? Telfair was the third string point guard on one of the worst teams in the NBA. Dickau was injured all of last season, so we never really got to see what he could do. And, amidst all the happy horsecrap coming out of Causeway Street, it’s worth remembering that last year, Dickau was supposed to be the steal of the offseason.

We didn’t really get out from under Raef LaFrentz's deal, although two years of an onerous contract is certainly preferably to THREE (particularly when you’ve already eaten three). Ratliff could provide sorely needed help on defense, but it’s all contingent on him being HEALTHY, which has been a problem, and seems likely to be in the future, given the fact he’s been in the league for 11 years.

Rajon Rondo. This is the real head scratcher. Marcus Williams was good for almost 9 assists a game at UConn. Rondo? Barely 5, and he can’t shoot. People talk about the laptop thing, but do we need a boy scout or a point guard. And the kid sure didn’t look fat on that stage last night. With the Grant deal, we’ll essentially be paying $2M plus this year for the services of Rondo, who might well have dropped to the second round.

At the end of the day, the team is probably a bit better, but nowhere near what it could have been with Randy Foye and Williams. The draft was textbook Ainge and a classic example of why he’s been able to look so good, while his teams perform so poorly. Ainge, like most fans, is intoxicated by the whiff of potential. That’s why the team now sports four players under the age of 21 who have never played a minute of college basketball. Unfortunately, while Jefferson, Perkins, Telfair, and Green all look great and have flashes, none of them have a history of consistent performance against high level competition. In fact, the only Celtics youngsters who do – West and Gomes – are also the ones who have been most successful and had the greatest impact. And so, for three years now, the Celtics have delivered lousy results.

Ultimately, this draft is so troubling because it demonstrates Danny’s utter inability to recognize his mistakes and learn from them. The best example of this is his line that if Telfair had gone to Louisville for two years, he’d be the top point guard in this draft. It demonstrates Ainge’s inability to grasp a crucial bit of reality: Telfair DIDN’T go to Louisville. It’s impossible to say how he’d have performed or where he’d be in the draft.

Maybe I’m being negative. Maybe I’m being overcritical. After three years (and counting) of underperforming teams, though, I don’t think the Celts “brain trust” has earned the benefit of the doubt. My prediction: Iverson or no, the Celtics underperform, Doc’s gone by the All-Star break, and Danny takes the reins. By this time next year, the team’s looking for a new coach (LB!) and GM.

Baser Instincts

2006-06-28T10:56:00.000-07:00

Did anyone see Shira Springer's VALENTINE to Danny Ainge in the Globe? Here are a couple of clips:

"(Ainge's) approach has loaded the Celtics with young talent -- Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, and Orien Greene... Given what Ainge had to work with, mid-to-late first-round picks and second-rounders, the Celtics arguably have drafted better than any other team in the league the past three seasons in terms of stockpiling for the future. ... For all the lists and statistics and scouting trips and team workouts, Ainge said the decision about whom Boston drafts each year ``boils down to instinct."

Somewhere, Billy Beane is throwing a chair.

Springer goes on to use Al Jefferson as a shining example of Ainge's great instincts and draft savvy. ``Al was a guy that we weren't on all the time," said Ainge.

``Al was kind of a guy that came in late in the process because he was a high school kid. We saw him play in high school. I didn't, but my staff all saw him play at least once each. The first time I saw him was in the [McDonald's All-America] game, in practices, and I was impressed with Al at that time. That was when my antenna went up with him and I started watching him very closely. Then we brought him in for a workout and it was a disaster. My coaches are going, `You've got to be kidding me.'

``But those initial instincts, those initial feelings that I had when I first saw him [remained]. I thought he had a special-enough upside. I thought he was a real competitor. He just hadn't been able to prove it at a high level like Delonte and Tony had. I believed that he was going to instigate physical play and he was going to compete and he had a skill that I thought was unique and special -- scoring in the low post."

The part that scares me the most - and perhaps gives the greatest insight into the team's troubles and the way Ainge operates is the stuff about " he was a real competitor. He just hadn't been able to prove it at a high level..." Umm... Danny, THAT'S WHAT COLLEGE IS FOR!

Two years and three sprained ankles later, we’re still waiting for that "unique and special" player. Maybe it will happen this year, but it hasn't happened yet. At least not consistently. In fact, it's just as likely that Jefferson, Telfair, Iverson and the draftees would be the best example of why Ainge's approach is outdated. It's not about instinct. It's about analysis.

The economics professors who authored the new book "The Wages of Wins" said it best:

"One can play basketball. One can watch basketball. One can both play and watch basketball for a thousand years. If you do not systematically track what the players do, and then uncover the statistical relationship between these actions and wins, you will never know why teams win and why they lose."

We have a team full of players now that are guys Ainge picked up primarily because of his "instincts" and "feelings." And it's taken us from the playoffs to the lottery. My own "feeling" is that if we pick up Telfair and Iverson, we'll be wondering, as the Sixers have for the past few years, why we have "the Answer," not to mention "the Truth," but we still can't win.

No "Answer"

2006-06-28T08:52:00.000-07:00

Soooo... it seems like the rumors about the Celts working a trade for Allen Iverson weren't quite as baseless as first reported.

What do we think of AI on the Celtics? Here's an excerpt from Malcolm Gladwell’s review of "The Wages of Wins" (David J. Berri, Martin B. Schmidt, and Stacey L. Brook, Stanford; $29.95), in the New Yorker last May:

"According to (the authors’) analysis, Iverson's finest season was in 2004-05, when he was worth ten wins, which made him the thirty-sixth-best player in the league. In the season in which he won the Most Valuable Player award, he was the ninety-first-best player in the league. In his worst season (2003-04), he was the two-hundred-and-twenty-seventh-best player in the league. On average, for his career, he has ranked a hundred and sixteenth. In some years, Iverson has not even been the best player on his own team."

Iverson's not the answer for the Celtics. On WEEI, Ian Thompson from SI is talking about how Philly is done with AI. They feel they can't win with him (which supports the analysis above). According to Thompson, the thinking is that if they don't move Iverson now, everyone in the Philly front office could get canned.

Just the guy for an underacheiving team, no?

Fair to Tel?

2006-06-27T11:15:00.000-07:00

The latest is that trade talks between the Celts and the Blazers are for real. CelticsBlog.com and Chad Ford on ESPN say the talks “have legs.” The deal? Dickau and the #7 for Sebastian Telfair. (Danny Ainge loved ST when Portland drafted him couple years ago.)

The Celts fan blogosphere has erupted predictably around poles.

On the one hand…
“NO!!!!!!!!! Telfair is not worth the number 7 pick. “

On the other…
“I’d make the deal in a heartbeat ! There isn’t a point guard in this draft that has the skills of Telfair and he is still very young.”

A little perspective here.

I don't believe all that much in the whole "development" thing. I think you know in the first couple of years what a player is going to be. There are exceptions (Chauncy Billups is one), but I’ve observed that, generally, players who are successful in the NBA go through adjustment, not development. Takes 2-3 years max. Either they can play or they can't.

I don't mean to say players don't improve throughout their careers. They do. But after two seasons, we know what Delonte West brings to the table and we know he belongs. Perk's still on the fence. Al Jefferson is beginning to look like Kedrick Brown. Just can't get it together.

So, after two seasons, I think it's likely that Telfair is what he is. He's not a great shooter and he's turnover prone, and he'd be coming to a team where TOs are a huge problem. On the other hand, his numbers project to 15 ppg and just over 6 assists/40 minutes. He's quick, but I haven’t seen enough to make a judgment about his defense.

Telfair wouldn't be steal and he wouldn't be a stiff either. He’d give the Celts some depth at point. I think it's a toss up whether or not he's better than Williams or Rondo or even, perhaps, a healthy Dickau.

At the end of the day, though, I'd like to see something more from Portland. I'm not so interested in the rights to their picks this year. NEXT year though...

Terry Tate, Contract Linebacker

2006-06-22T12:16:00.000-07:00

Celts blowing more smoke on signing Pierce to an extension. Read it in the Herald.

If I'm Paul Pierce's agent, I'm hiring Terry Tate, office linebacker to follow him around all year and DRILL him if he even THINKS of signing an extension with the Celtics.

Think about this for a second. Here's Pierce, one of the ten best players in the league, playing the best ball of his career on a team that has won 38, 45 and 33 regular season games and a whopping three playoff games in the last three years. Am I really going to sign this guy - who has maybe another 3-5 good years in him - to a team whose motto is "Be patient with us?" Nope, nope, nope. I'm going to let Pierce play out the season and then watch the teams line up to sign him for the big money, a chance at a title or both.

Can you imagine what the reaction would be if the Celtics had another lacklustre season and then LOST PIERCE at the end? "The parts of Danny and Doc will now be played by Jim Carey and Jeff Daniels."

King-makers again

2006-06-21T08:31:00.000-07:00

Is it just me or do the Celtics seem to have an uncanny knack for getting OTHER teams a ring?

The Chucky Atkins deal they did with Detroit in Ainge’s first year allowed the Pistons to grab Rasheed Wallace and a title. The Celts? They got a back-up point guard with (here’s a shocker) a huge contract.

Now, Antoine trade numero dos nets Miami a starter that, love or hate his game, was an integral part of their championship run (14 points 11 boards last night on ‘Toine-ean shooting of 6-17). What did we get? Some cash I guess and a ticket to the lottery.

But it’s all good, right? Because Al Jefferson wouldn’t have become an All-Star without the playing time. Oh that’s right… he WASN’T an all-star.

I don’t begrudge Antoine anything, though. I hate his game, but he’s a class act. Great person and a great teammate. Good for him.

What should Danny do with #7?

2006-05-26T07:25:00.000-07:00

Whatever GM Danny Ainge does in the draft, he should break with the Celtics’ tradition of the last 15 years or so and actually get value for the team’s pick and payroll dollars. Seems to me the best way to do that would be to package the pick with Wally Szczerbiak - a player with some value, but a one-dimensional game and a gargantuan long–term deal – for a veteran player who can defend and rebound, and whose contract gives the Celtics flexibility in the future. Of course, it would be better to package #7 with LaFrentz, a player with a worse contract and less value. As a friend of mine says, though, “If you mix doo-doo with lobster, it don’t taste like lobster.” No one will take that deal.

Would you pay $51M for this team?

2006-05-19T11:22:00.000-07:00

Contrary to the team’s spin, the Celtics aren’t bad because they’re young. They’re bad because the front office does a terrible job of getting value for their payroll dollar and an only less poor job with draft choices.

Here were the six highest paid players on the Celtics for 2005-2006:

Pierce, Paul $ 13,843,157
Szczerbiak, Wally $ 11,016,000
LaFrentz, Raef $ 9,996,179
Olowokandi, Michael $ 5,900,400
Scalabrine, Brian $ 2,586,000
Dickau, Dan $ 2,375,000

That’s about $46 million on a total payroll of $52.6M, with about $36M in the top three. Add in Doc’s salary (249-254 lifetime, 78-86 w/Celtics, 8-14 in post season), and you’re at about $51M. And most of that money is tied up in long term deals.

Set aside Pierce, who’s worth the money, and Wally, who’s not, but is very good at what he does. That’s still $21M-$22M – about 40% of the cap - tied up in Raef, Kandi/Blount, Scabs and Dickau. Hard to win when you spend your money that way.

What’s more, the Celtics have pretty much done a terrible job of getting value since the big three retired: Dana Barros, Vin Baker, Travis Knight, Xavier McDaniel, Dominique Wilkins, etc…
The value equation also extends to draft picks. The Celts have done such a fantastic job spinning the “development and youth” message that most of the sports media have bought it. I don’t mean there’s no criticism. There is, and it’s sometimes withering. But at the end of the day, most of the sports media settles down and says “okay, we’ll be patient,” even though high school players, in general, are much less likely to pan out than college players. They’ve never played against any stiff competition, and there’s no way to know what kind of adults they’ll be. In fact, moving so quickly to the NBA world of fame and money makes it much harder for kids to develop into healthy adults.

So it’s really no surprise that the players who’ve panned out for the Celts are Delonte West, Ryan Gomes and, although he’s gotten into some trouble, Tony Allen. They’ve been vetted. Of course, being a good college player is no guarantee either. But it’s a better bet.

The Celts want everyone to keep buying tickets, so they keep spinning the “development” message. They may even believe it themselves. But it’s a real crapshoot that Jefferson, Perkins and Greene will ever turn out to be consistent players. Moreover, this is the NBA. Of course there needs to be an adjustment period for any new player, but this is not a development league. Players are expected to produce and win.

In the meantime, the Celt's front office has escaped ANY serious scrutiny regarding the way it spends the VAST majority of its dollars, and the kind of value it delivers… THREE YEARS after blowing up a playoff team.

The Smell of Death

2006-04-06T07:15:00.000-07:00

Like him or loathe him, Doc smells like death right now. Here’s Rivers after the Toronto win:

''I've heard that all year: 'Play the young guys,' " Rivers said. ''Well, the young guys aren't ready all the time. They have to learn how to be ready. We send such a bad message in this league with 'play the young guys, but let the young guys earn their spot.' "

That’s pretty much been Rivers’ player development philosophy all year right? Make the kids earn their playing time. Now here’s Rivers after last night’s loss tot he Washington Wizards:

''I thought our young guys in the first half were terrific," said Rivers. ''In the second half, they were not. I do understand putting them all in at the same time is dangerous. I don't really care. They need to get out there and play minutes and I'm going to keep doing it."

Ummm… okay.

It could just be me, but it sounds an awful lot like someone from the front office took Doc aside and said “Coach, you’re 13 games under .500. The season’s in the crapper. PLAY THE GODDAMNED KIDS!”

You can get away with the “kids got to earn their playing time” stuff when you have a good team. You also might be able to get away with it if you’re an experienced coach with a long track record of success who commands respect around the league. When you’re Doc Rivers and you’re coaching a lottery team, though, you have no leverage. Think Al Jefferson got the message that the sun shined out of his behind when the Celtics dumped Antoine Walker last year and put Al's mug in all the ads and on the cover of the media guide? Think Jefferson figured out he was "the man" when the basketball cognoscenti were anointing him a can’t-miss all-star in the offseason? I wonder if all that had something to do with the fact that he never got in shape and spent much of the year on the DL…

The team is cruising to its worst record since the Rick Pitino era and, other than Delonte West, we don’t really know anything more about what the kids can do than we did last November. We're still talking about Jefferson, Allen and Perkins in terms of "potential" rather than production. Greene and Green are fighting for playing time. And the team seems curiously silent about Gomes’s future role, perhaps because his play has been so up and down in recent weeks.

Rivers will go. He has to go. Last year's team was slotted for 48-50 wins and a couple rounds in the playoffs. Two-thirds of the way through the season, Rivers had coached the team to a losing record. They needed Walker just to get to the post-season and the team’s performance in game 7 against the Pacers had to be one of the most humiliating moments in Celtics history. So the team bagged the “bad influences,” over the last year and went with youth. And here we are, staring a mid-level lottery pick in the face.

Even those who love Doc would never list “mental toughness” as a strength of any of the teams he has coached. There have been successes with the Celts: getting Gary Payton and Ricky Davis to play consistently; managing malcontents like Blount and Banks; the heady days after the Antoine Walker trade; the emergence of Delonte and Ryan Gomes; getting Paul Pierce to take it to another level. But at the end of the day, you simply can’t argue that Doc has met expectations. Antoine is gone. Payton is gone. Ricky, Blount and Banks are gone and the team still stinks. There’s no one else left to blame anymore. With one exception…

If Doc goes, should his boss Danny Ainge go? For me the answer is no… at least not yet.

Ultimately, this is Danny’s team. Other than Pierce, there’s no one left from the OB regime. The initial strategy was to surround Pierce with talented vets, be competitive for a couple of years, and bring the kids along slowly. He blew that up last offseason to go with youth, which, so far, isn’t really paying dividends either. And to be fair, the 2005-2006 team isn’t the one Doc signed up to coach. He’s not a player development guy. He doesn’t have the experience. So, to some extent, Danny set Doc up for failure.

Like Doc, there have been successes: the drafts; getting Payton and then Antoine for virtually nothing; the Ricky Davis deal (for which he was initially barbecued). But there have been many more turkeys. Former Celtics Marcus Banks and Ricky Davis combined gave the Timberwolves 35 points and 14 assists last night. Wally Szerbiak gave the Celtics a scorching 10 points and five boards. (I think Dwayne Jones was exhumed at some point too.) The signings of Dickau and Scabs were lousy. He jettisoned Antoine Walker and Gary Payton and got almost nothing in return. But the worst player deal was clearly for Raef LaFrentz, who earned his $11M again last night by going 1-8 with a couple boards. By the end of this season, the team will have shelled out $33M for this stuff over the past three years (and Raef hardly played the year he was traded).

Dealing for or signing mediocre players with crippling contracts has been the hallmark of the Celtics front office for at least a decade now: Travis Knight, Dana Barros, Vin Baker, LaFrentz, Blount, Wally. The list goes on and on… And when Danny refers to Raef as a core player for the team’s future, he sounds disturbingly out of touch.

Danny has put together a more talented team than the one he inherited, but after three years, his vision has yet to play out. A lot will depend on who the next coach is. If he comes back with Rivers next year and the team plays with the inconsistency it has demonstrated for the last two years, then he should follow Doc out the door. If Doc steps down or is fired in the offseason, there needs to be an exhaustive search for the next coach. Handing the reins to Tony Brown would have been acceptable halfway through the season, and he still may be the best man for the job, but now the team needs to demonstrate that to the fans.

Twenty years now since the last banner folks. There was so much optimism when a member of that championship team took control, but now the Celtics seem farther from another Garden party than it did the day Danny Ainge arrived.

Stay of Execution

2006-03-30T06:12:00.000-08:00

Celts blow out Knicks 123-98 last night. Here's Laske:

"God... if there is a team more deserving of pity than NY who is it? Isiah just plain sucks. They're probably waiting to see if this lady wins her lawsuit. Then they can fire him for cause and not have to buy out his contract. It was a 34 point lead a few minutes ago... it's safe to go to bed."

If you're a Knicks fan, though, you have one thing the Celtics don't: clarity. You KNOW you stink, the season's over and there are big changes in the offing. You even have something to look forward to: the distinct possibility you'll win the draft lottery (although any Celtics fans would tell you not to get your hopes up).

Celts fans, on the other hand, have to read and listen to more garbage about making the playoffs (seriously, kill me now), and more "stand by your man" stuff from Danny Ainge about coach Doc Rivers. It's like listening to Scott McClellan talk about Iraq. Yeesh.

These kinds of wins are more frustrating than the losses. I mean, Gomes went 15 and 13. Kendrick pulled down 12 boards. Delonte went for 21 and 6. WHO CARES? It’s completely meaningless against the Knicks. All it does is buy Doc another game.

The Celts have Chicago, Washington and Philly next. Best thing that could happen is they lose all three, get a better lottery pick and Rivers is gone. With things this bad in NYC, maybe we could get a shot at Larry Brown. Worst thing: they win all three, make or fall just short of the playoffs and bring Doc back for another year, only to can him when the team stinks again, thereby deep-sixing another training camp and a good chunk of the year.

The Doc Rivers Countdown

2006-03-27T11:25:00.000-08:00

After last night's fiasco against the Bulls, I'm taking guesses on how long before Danny makes Doc walk the plank. Laske says Tony Brown's the new head coach no later than Friday, March 31. (After all, it would be cruel to can Doc on April Fool's Day!) I'm standing pat on my last prediction. With the team on the hook for $5 million a year for the next three years, I don't think the Celts can Doc right now. I say Doc closes out the season and either doesn't come back, or does on a very short leash.

Bull

2006-03-27T06:36:00.000-08:00

So... our guys blew another double digit fourth quarter lead last night, at home to the sub .500 Chicago Bulls, who happen to be between us and the free-falling Philadelphians.

Quoth my buddy Frank Laske:

"Celts...what can you say...10 point lead going into the 4th quarter...Have we heard this before? Do we want to hear anymore? Where's my 'done fork?'"

Right on Frank.

Can we please stop talking about the playoffs now? Pumping up some drive to get executed by the Pistons in four games was garbage to begin with, and it clearly hasn't inspired the team, particularly the youngsters. In fact, it really isn’t even fun to watch the kids anymore. Jefferson’s out (again). Perkins had 14 boards last night and Gomes 15 the nightbefore, but otherwise, both have been thorougly underwhelming over the past couple of weeks. Delonte's consistent. Green is still non-existent.

The Globe's Shira Springer makes a great point in her account of the loss. All this stuff about developing the kids and team progress seems pretty ridiculous in March when you're losing games in exactly the same ways you did in November and December.

Organizational rhetoric aside, I don't know how they bring Doc back next year. It was painful, but gratifying last Sunday to see SOMEONE in the media other than Bill Simmons take notice of the fact that Rivers' career coaching record is mediocre at best. The Globe's Peter May made the point that no one in the NBA has coached more games without a playoff win. And it ain't gonna start this year.

The take here is that if Rivers is back next year, he'll be on a short leash. If the team starts off with more of the same inconsistency and softness, Ainge will pull the trigger, can Rivers and either take the reins himself or go with Tony Brown, who actually has some pretty good experience and the respect of the players. We all love Doc and want to see him succeed, but watching the Celts this year has been like watching a car crash in slow motion over and overand over...

Playoffs or Play Off?

2006-03-23T07:41:00.000-08:00

From erstwhile sports guru Frank Laske:

The Celts are 4 behind Philly with 15 games to go. Chicago also has us by half a game. Not sure if we can make it, but I still want them to try. Sorry to see Al Jefferson get shut down by Doc. I guess the ankle is too questionable. And I'm happy to see GG getting some more time and points. An upside for us is that most of our rookies have made impressive leaps over the year. Gomes, West, Jefferson, Perkins, Greene...have all improved dramatically. I'm a little less impressed with OG and Tony Allen (although TA did have a breakout game the other night). Jones got in last night as Candy went on DL. Doc doesn't seem interested in developing those two at all, so the quest for the big man continues I guess.

Would it be better to make or miss the playoffs? That's about the only thing left to debate this season.

I'm on board with the Globe's Peter May that it's probably better for the team to make the lottery. It's not the answer, but it gives them better options in the future. And if this year isn't about the future, than it's pretty much a complete loss.

That said, the answer is not so much in who we add in the offseason, but who have now and can develop. If the kids started to play so well that the team made the playoffs. I guess that would be good news, even if the offseason options aren't as enticing. But I'm so utterly disgusted by the NBA's playoff system - designed specifically to squeeze the fan and cater to the greed of owners and players - that the entire notion of a Celtics-Pistons series makes me want to vomit.

I agree with Frank that it's been gratifying to see some of the kids develop, but I'm not so sure what we're left with here, and if we'll be all that much better next year. Delonte West is a bona fide player, although the Celts could still use a big assist guy at the point. Ryan Gomes seemed to be a star in the making for awhile there, but have you seen his numbers lately? Since the Milwaukee game, he's gotten big minutes, with little production. Between injury and legal hassles, this has been a lost year for Tony Allen. (What a shame.) And I'd hoped to see Al Jefferson's star rise quite a bit, but he's often injured and inconsistent. I still don't know what we have there, or with Kendrick Perkins. Some nice games here and there. Not much more. And Gerald Green? He can hardly get on the court.

Next year really is make or break for this team. Youth won't be an acceptable excuse anymore. No more talk about potential for Jefferson and Perkins. They need to stay healthy and produce. Rivers needs to show he can win a playoff series and get a team to perform with some consistency. Ainge has said next year, he's looking for 45-50 wins. If they get it, he, Rivers and the youth movement are vindicated and the "plan" moves on. If not, Danny will be remembered as the guy who blew up a playoff team for something a notch above the Atlanta Hawks.

Fogger

2006-03-20T16:32:00.000-08:00

To prove that it's hip with the whole new media thing, boston.com has set up a faux blog (a fog) called "the Green Room." Three online columnists throw down in a format that looks like a blog, but of course, doesn't actually allow anyone outside the star chamber to post. And these guys wonder why Google and Blogger are eating their lunch. Oh well...

Today, fogger Jesse Nunes carries on about the Celtics still having a chance to make the playoffs. Jesse, no one cares. The team is buried on page three or five or whatever of the sports section.

To say the Celts are playing meaningful games in their quest to be clubbed by Detroit like a harp seal by an eskimo, ignores the fact that 16 playoff teams and four rounds essentially make the regular season meaningless. By perpetuating this nonsense, Nunes acts as a mouthpiece for NBA owners and their absurd system, which exists primarily to fleece poor suckers like him who support teams that have no business being anywhere but the lottery.

This isn't to say that the lottery is the way to banner number 17. The Celtics don't really need any more young players, and I'm not seeing any franchise players in the NCAA tournament. A lottery pick would probably be most useful in trade to get some cap relief or a veteran who could contribute. But Danny's in love with Raef (ugh), and how much veteran you gonna get for a mid-level lottery pick?

So... playoffs, no playoffs... it's unimportant. If the team is going to get anywhere in the long term, the players they have now are going to have to develop into something special.

Without leader, Celts will always be green

2006-03-17T13:54:00.000-08:00

Another hideous loss for our beloved Boston Celtics: 102-94 at the hands of the Suns. Welcome to ten games under .500.

It’s not about blame at this point. It’s also not about talent or Wally or even youth. It’s about the fact that the team has lost three in a row and is now ten games under .500. It’s about turnovers, missed foul shots, comebacks that consistently fall short and leads that evaporate.

Sure Wally was off from the floor. But he stepped it up on the boards and with assists and Pierce picked up the scoring slack. If I told you before the game that Pierce and Wally would give the Celts 45 points, 13 boards and seven assists, that West would give you 12 and 4, Perk would add ten boards and Big Al would give you a 17 and 7, and then if I told you that the Celts would both outshoot and out rebound the Suns, who were on the last leg of a brutal road trip without Amare, You’d have thought that would add up to a sure win. Buuuuttttt NOOOOOoooooo….

And can we please stop using youth as an excuse? How many times last year did we watch the team come roaring back in the second half and then let a game slip away in the final minutes? How many times did they blow big third and fourth quarter leads? This was a team that was sub .500 before the Walker trade in 2005. It’s not a talent problem or a youth problem or even, necessarily, a coaching problem. They have a LEADERSHIP problem.

Sometimes your team leader can be one of the players: Russell, Havlicek, Cowens, Bird, Magic, Jordan, etc… As good as Pierce is – and last night that was SMOKIN’ good – he’s not that guy. He’s not the guy that simply will not allow his team to lose. He missed some crucial foul shots down the stretch and went cold from the floor in the last seconds. And it’s not the first time.

Traditionally, though, leadership comes from the coach: Pat Riley, Larry Brown and, yes, Jim O’Brien. In the NBA, a coach doesn’t necessarily have to be a good teacher, good at game management or x’s and o’s (although I think Doc comes up short in those areas too). He’s got to win the respect of his players, motivate them, and give them the sense that they’re capable of winning. The greatest coaches can inspire their teams not only to reach their potential, but also go beyond.

Doc has the respect of his players and does a terrific job of managing difficult personalities. But both here and in Orlando, he’s had a hard time getting the most out of his TEAMS. And when it comes to crunch time, Doc’s guys often crumble.

My guess is they stay with Doc for the rest of the year. The kids will keep developing. If they finish strong, the Celts may keep him around next year and can him if the team underachieves next year, with Danny taking the reins. If they keep playing .390 ball, though, they’ll drop Doc quickly after the last game.

Where they go from there is anyone’s guess.

Could O'Brien Change Rivers' Course?

2006-03-17T13:50:00.000-08:00

The satisfaction of seeing the Globe's Peter May and ESPN's Bill Simmons FINALLY start to hold Celtics coach Doc Rivers to account provides some relief during this fiasco of a season. Local scribes have been nibbling at Doc's edges for weeks now, most notably in Bob Ryan's year-end assessment of Boston's big four sports teams.

Look, it was agony to watch the Celtics when Jim O'Brien was coaching. Even when they won it was ugly: sludgeball and all those "silly threes." And the style of play was less enraging than O'Brien's contempt for anyone who questioned the wisdom of an offensive approach that allowed your starting power forward to lead the league in three point attempts. "We can't win any other way," Obie would snap at his critics. What crap.

BUT - and this is the thing - O'Brien won. He took a perennial loser, won just shy of 50 games and made it to the Eastern Conference Finals. And he did it with a team that certainly was less talented than the current 14-22 squad. (Just ask Paul Pierce.) O'Brien's teams may have been unbearable to watch, but GM Danny Ainge's decision to blow up the Celtics and go in another direction (which led to O'Brien's resignation) has not panned out.

It's unfair of Simmons to say " the local media doesn't seem to care -- there hasn't been a relevant writer covering the team since Jackie MacMullan." May in particular called Ainge out last summer for essentially blowing up the team AGAIN and going with a youth movement in the third (rather than the first) year of the new regime. He predicted that things would not go well and they haven't.

But the initial decision to hire Rivers went largely unscrutinized. And until now, Doc has largely escaped criticism for the way the team has underacheived this year and last. Doc never won as many as fifty games in Orlando, and has never won a playoff series. His teams underacheived - particularly in the first half of the season, but most notably in an embarassing 3-1 postseason collapse to Detroit. He famously feuded with Tracy McGrady. True, he won Coach of the Year, but the Magic still missed the playoffs that season. Why was this the guy to take the Celtics to the next level? And why did he escape criticism after last year's Celtics performed pretty much the same as Rivers' Orlando teams, including the disgraceful game seven loss to the Pacers?

Yes, play the kids. Yes, settle on a rotation. And, if Rivers can't do that, then, yes, can him and have Danny take the reins. But... here's another, completely insane, utterly outrageous idea. Bring O'Brien back.

O'Brien got the team to play defense and rebound. He was a master at getting more out of a less talented team. Other than Pierce, he had a bunch of guys nobody else much wanted. (I mean, Mark Blount? Tony Battie?) He got them to play a grueling defensive style because they really COULDN'T have won any other way. The problem was that success (as moderate as it may have been) made him resistant to change. Ainge came in and saw that the team was just going to have to get more talented if it was ever going to be a real contender. He blew up the team and Obie - who had won doing it HIS way - split (and did a pretty good job in Philly if you ask me).

But what if both men could swallow their pride? What if Danny could call up Obie and say "Y'know... you may have been right about the importance of toughness and the need to focus more on defense." And what if Obie could admit "You know, you DO have more talent now. Ricky Davis wasn't the cancer I thought he'd be. The kids could be great and Pierce is playing better than ever." What if they both could swallow hard and focus on the fact that, if Obie could get the Celtics to play defense and stop coughing up the ball, this could be a very good team.

I KNOW. Now way it will happen. But O'Brien does, as they say, have some time on his hands. And, other than one brilliant twelve game run after the Antione Walker trade last year, the Celtics haven't been able to succeed without him. Pride has left O'Brien unemployed and Ainge with a team that's irrelevant. It couldn't hurt to call.

In November, Celts fans have little to be thankful for

2006-03-17T13:44:00.000-08:00

So... my beloved Celtics are 4-7. They've lost four of their last five games. Two of the losses came against the bottom-dwelling Seattle Supersonics (5-6) and... gulp... Atlanta Hawks (1-9, the 1 coming courtesy of the Celtics).Shira Springer was dead on in the Globe this morning. The Celtics can talk about the youth of the team all they like, but when you give up 120 points to the worst team in the league, experience isn't the problem, showing up is.

In fact, the kids are alright. Last night was something of a coming out party for Justin Reed, the second year, second rounder the Celtics touted last season. Reed shot well, made good decisions and, most of all, played stifling defense. On a night when veterans Raef LaFrentz and Mark Blount were making Al Harrington look like Kevin Garnett, Reed was the only Celtic to put the clamps on. Orien Greene started at point in place of the oft injured Delonte West and, despite the fact that the Globe's Springer was unimpressed, seemed to play with composure, to play defense and to take care of the ball. Not bad for a rookie second round pick. Allen and West are hurt, and someone may need to mention to Al Jefferson that he's not quite ready for Springfield yet (playing defense would help), but again, the youngsters aren't the problem.

Seven footer Mark Blount (one rebound and five turnovers in 25 minutes) may be. LaFrentz too has been unimpressive on defense. Dan Dickau has showed he can shoot the ball, but is also a defensive liability, and fouled out stupidly at the end of the game just when the Celtics needed a little scoring. From quarter to quarter, Ricky Davis seems either to be taking over a game or almost completely MIA, as when he dribbled into Orien Greene last night, another costly mistake at the end of a game.

As a team, the Celts fall apart in the fourth quarter. They turn the ball over. They don't execute. And what hapened to the running game the Celtics were supposedly committed to? I watched nearly the entire second half and, other than a Ricky Davis sneak away, everything was half court, which is problematic when your bigs won't rebound and the team can't effectively run the plays you've drawn up.

We're hardly a month into the season, of course, but the trends are troubling. Moreover, the Celtics' early season schedule is heavy with home games and some mediore teams. Boston has yet to win on the road. Just a guess, but if you can't win in Atlanta, I'm thinking you're not going to win in San Antonio. Or New Jersey for that matter.So... what to do. Trades? Ainge has already traded or released most of the team he inherited. Hell, he traded Antoine Walker twice. People talk about moving Pierce, but he's not the problem. In fact, Pierce seems to have taken things up a notch from last year, which was arguably one of his best seasons. He scores. Many nights he pulls down more boards than LaFrentz and Blount combined. And anybody catch his steal on Joe Johnson in the fourth quarter against the Hawks? Brilliant. Spare me the crap about body language. Pierce is playing his guts out.

Be nice to move LaFrentz and Blount, but those contracts Danny took on make them "immobilare." And even if they had great contracts, I don't imagine that Blount, for instance, has a whole lot of value. Teams aren't looking for seven footers who don't rebound or play defense, then bitch to their coach about wanting more touches on offense.No one's talking about it, but if things haven't changed after another ten games, or if they've worsened, Ainge may need to take a look at the coach. The Celtics aren't competing and the players a beginning to look a little like they're tuning Rivers out. People will say it's early to start pointing fingers at the coach, and the Celtics gave him a long term deal for big money, but the Rivers coached Celts have followed up last year's disappointing playoff loss with a disappointing start. If he can't turn the team around by the quarter point in the season, Ainge may have to start thinking about taking the reins.

In the long-term, though, Ainge himself has to take some heat. He's brought on some terrific young talent and made some smart trades, but Ainge has also taken on some hideous contracts that have left the team unable to fill holes or bring on veterans to balance out the kids. The Celtics have been whining about the salary cap ever since the inception of free agency. If Ainge wants to be remembered as a successful GM, though, he's going to have to figure out a way to clear some space so the team can do more than dip a toe into the market. Otherwise, the Celtics will be perpetually green. And perpetually disappointing.

The 2005-2006 season: Stepping back?

2006-03-17T13:41:00.000-08:00

It's midsummer now and I'm trying to get a sense of just where the hell this team is going. I have to say, I have decidedly mixed feelings as we get closer and closer to the 2005-2006 season.

On the one hand, I don't share the jaundiced view of the youth movement that I read from some scribes in the print media. I'm excited about the kids and this last draft looks like another steal of Auerbachian proportions. Folks were talking about the Celtics taking Ryan Gomes in the FIRST round. It's as though someone handed the Celtics the number three pick in the draftfor nothing.

I also think that it's awfully early to begin post mortems on the 2005-2006 season because of the lack of veteran talent. This team would be looking a lot better if it had held on to some young players named Chauncy Billups and Joe Johnson. And who's to say that the Celtics won't develop some of the kids and trade them for veterans who can balance out the roster?

On the other hand, what we see is apparently what we're going to get from the Celtics when they tip off in November. It WILL be a step back and as a fan and a member of the paying public, that makes me both furious and frustrated. After burning through two seasons, how can the Celtics turn to the fan base now and say "We're rebuilding. We need you to be patient?" The time for that was TWO years ago. A couple of great drafts can't hide what the team is really saying to fans: "Our strategy for the last two years has been a failure. Keep buying tickets while we give it another try."

I was first in line to drive Antoine to the airport when I heard he'd been traded two years ago. He symbolized an unwatchable style of play. GM Danny Ainge decided that he wanted to try and build around Pierce and moved Walker for LaFrentz and Welsch.Now flash forward a couple of years. The team is essentially rebuilding again. They actually had to bring Walker back to salvage last season. Although healthy and serviceable last season, LaFrentz has been a "trick or treat" kind of player and the Celtics can't do anything in the free agent market because they're choking on his contract (along with Blount's and... GUH! Vin Baker's!). On top of that, they now want to move Pierce, the guy they wanted to build around, but he has ZERO trade value.

Consider this: of the two "stars," Walker and Pierce, who had more value two years ago? Pierce, to be sure. And whose skills as a passer and rebounder were more suited to a running game? Walker. What if the team had held on to Walker and moved Pierce? Chances are they'd have gotten more "value" for Pierce, while not having to swallow a poison pill like LaFrentz's contract. Now Maybe Antoine would have worked out. Maybe not. One thing's for sure, though. His contract would be UP and the team would be under the salary cap.

After this season, it will be 20 years since the last championship. I'm sick of the excuses. The big three, Len Bias, and Reggie Lewis have all been gone for a long time now. And you can blame the f'ed up NBA lottery system for awarding Duncan to the Spurs, but not for letting go of talented players like Billups and not for Acie Earl, Kedrick Brown, Joe Forte, Jerome Moiso and a bevy of other forgettable draftees. And is it just me, or have the Celtics NEVER brought in a real impact free agent? It's the same salary cap for everyone boys. Stop whining and taking on monster contracts like LaFrentz and Blount and deal with it!I wrote a friend earlier this week and told him in a fury that the Celtics were going to have to show me something this year if they wanted to keep me buying tickets and watching the games. I don't mean they have to win 55 games this season. Just give me a reason to believe they will contend sometime this DECADE.

Draft 2005: Green go Green

2006-03-17T13:36:00.000-08:00

The end of last season was a huge disappointment for the NBA's Boston Celtics and their fans. The loss to Indiana - a less talented team - in the first round of the playoffs was hard enough to swallow, but final game's blow out loss in Boston was probably one of the most humiliating moments in Celtics history. The regular season wasn't exactly a bell-ringer either. Although they played strong for stretches in the second half of the season, the Celtics still ended up only eight games over .500. A team that featured all-star guard/forward Paul Pierce, past all star forward Antoine Walker, perennial all star and sure hall of fame guard Gary Payton, dynamic sixth man Ricky Davis a healthy center in Raef LaFrentz and a crop of exciting rookies should have done more.

The offseason promised to be both interesting and complicated for Boston. The team has already made it clear that Payton won't be back, although he talked a good game to the press last year and seemed to do a lot of nodding in the huddle. The word is, though, that on the floor he did whatever he wanted. He was always bitching about other people not running, but count the number of times he walked the ball up the floor last year.The conventional wisdom has been that the Celtics won't bring Antoine Walker back for more than $5M a year. That's quite a drop from last year's $14M salary. Antoine has said he expects to take a pay cut, but he's probably thinking of a deal in the $8M-$10M range. He can't get that. Not here. Not on the market. He can take the pay cut and stay in Boston where he's loved and wants to retire, or he can take it somewhere else. Be interesting to see if he can swallow his pride, or if he'll split out of spite. Whatever the case, Celtics GM Danny Ainge won't budge.

Perhaps the most frustrating news during the offseason has been reports that Celtics captain Paul Pierce has drawn no interest from teams around the league looking to make a deal. Pierce has a stink on him like doo-doo since the world championships a couple of years ago when he acquired a reputation as a bit of a pouter and a selfish player. Pierce only reinforced the perception during the playoffs, when he nearly cost his team a win taking a swing at Pacer Jerome Tinsley after a hard foul in the closing minutes of game six. Now Pierce is seen as a talented player who wants to be the man, but can't win.

The Payton move will probably be addition by subtraction. If 20-year-old Al Jefferson continues to develop into a bona fide monster in the post next year, it might blunt some of the impact of Walker's exit (should he and Boston not come to an agreement). And pouting or not, Pierce would probably be good for 22-25 ppg and 7-8rpg. Still, it's hard to say that the 2005-2006 Celtics would be better than last year's model. The team would be very young and still have no proven point guard. You could almost hear the fan base deflating.

That's why last night's draft was so huge. Texas high school phenom Gerald Green was projected by most draft-masters to go to Portland, who held the sixth pick in the draft, smack dab in the middle of the lottery. ESPN's Chad Ford had Green going as high as three. Described as an explosive player, and a lights-out shooter who can "jump out of the gym," Green has been compared to Rockets superstar Tracy McGrady. It was such a foregone conclusion that Green would be a lottery pick, in fact, he wasn't even on the Celtics' board. They were sure he wouldn't be there. It's the sort of luck the Celtics' haven't had in the draft since Len Bias died.

Now the offseason becomes even more intriguing. Does having a young talent like Green embolden Ainge to trade one of his other young players if it makes it easier to move Paul Pierce, open up some playing time for the kid and get some value in return?It's a crucial time for the team. They have a group of extraordinarily talented - and extraordinarily young - players. If they learn to play the "right way" - ferocious defense with an emphasis on transition, sharing the ball and making each other better - the Celtics could have the core of a team that will contend for many years to come. That's why it's so important for Ainge to move Pierce and fellow malcontent Mark Blount and bring in some strong veteran leadership, even if that means sacrificing on the talent end of a deal. The team needs a seasoned point guard and an enforcer who can tell the kids to shut up, come correct and play team basketball. Boston will certainly be a more dynamic team in November 2005 than it was in November 2004. Only veteran leadership, though, will make the Celtics a better team.