Fair to Tel?

The latest is that trade talks between the Celts and the Blazers are for real. CelticsBlog.com and Chad Ford on ESPN say the talks “have legs.” The deal? Dickau and the #7 for Sebastian Telfair. (Danny Ainge loved ST when Portland drafted him couple years ago.)

The Celts fan blogosphere has erupted predictably around poles.

On the one hand…
“NO!!!!!!!!! Telfair is not worth the number 7 pick. “

On the other…
“I’d make the deal in a heartbeat ! There isn’t a point guard in this draft that has the skills of Telfair and he is still very young.”

A little perspective here.

I don't believe all that much in the whole "development" thing. I think you know in the first couple of years what a player is going to be. There are exceptions (Chauncy Billups is one), but I’ve observed that, generally, players who are successful in the NBA go through adjustment, not development. Takes 2-3 years max. Either they can play or they can't.

I don't mean to say players don't improve throughout their careers. They do. But after two seasons, we know what Delonte West brings to the table and we know he belongs. Perk's still on the fence. Al Jefferson is beginning to look like Kedrick Brown. Just can't get it together.

So, after two seasons, I think it's likely that Telfair is what he is. He's not a great shooter and he's turnover prone, and he'd be coming to a team where TOs are a huge problem. On the other hand, his numbers project to 15 ppg and just over 6 assists/40 minutes. He's quick, but I haven’t seen enough to make a judgment about his defense.

Telfair wouldn't be steal and he wouldn't be a stiff either. He’d give the Celts some depth at point. I think it's a toss up whether or not he's better than Williams or Rondo or even, perhaps, a healthy Dickau.

At the end of the day, though, I'd like to see something more from Portland. I'm not so interested in the rights to their picks this year. NEXT year though...